In this episode of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, record live from New York City and Greenwich, Connecticut, to break down a fast moving week in the markets. With oil disruption in the Strait of Hormuz rattling investors and the S&P 500 swinging sharply, Ryan and Sonu ask what every investor is wondering: is this a buying opportunity or a warning sign?
Sonu explains why oil flows matter far beyond energy prices and why he believes the timing of the Middle East crisis resolution is the single biggest variable for markets right now. Ryan puts the current drawdown in historical context, noting that geopolitical shocks across more than 40 major events since World War II have historically led to flat or recovering markets within three months.
With earnings season just two weeks away, they also cover the labor market’s low hiring, low firing equilibrium, rising manufacturing activity, and record high forward profit margin expectations of 15% for the S&P 500. The message is clear: crises shift winners and losers rather than ending bull markets, and a diversified portfolio remains the smartest response to uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- Oil disruption through the Strait of Hormuz is a key variable for market direction and when it resolves matters enormously.
- The S&P 500’s roughly 9% pullback fits the historical norm; the average year sees a 14% peak to trough decline.
- Geopolitical events historically result in flat to recovering markets within three months.
- The labor market remains in a low hire, low fire state — stable, but tough for job seekers.
- Forward profit margins for the S&P 500 are at record highs near 15%, supporting the bull market case.
- Crises shift winners and losers; a diversified portfolio is the right response, not panic selling.
Jump to:
0:00 – Hello From New York And Connecticut
0:48 – Oil Disruption Hits Markets Fast
3:32 – Labor Market Stays Low Hire
5:36 – Geopolitics And How Markets Adapt
6:38 – Corrections Are Normal Stay Invested
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
